Matthew Gardner – Will There Be A Recession in 2020?

Windermere Chief Economist, Matthew Gardner, answers the most pressing question on everyone’s minds: Will there be a recession in 2020? Here’s what he expects to see.


This post originally appeared on the Windermere.com Blog


Posted on January 29, 2020 at 7:54 am
Heidi Renee | Posted in Buying a Home, Gardner Report, Housing Market, Selling your Home | Tagged , , , , , , , ,

As Big Tech’s Eastside Presence Expands, Bellevue Preps for More Commuter

Incorporated in 1953, during the heyday for cars, Bellevue was originally built for the automobile.

Back then, planners designed wide six-lane arterials meant to move vehicles fast. The road grid creates 600-foot-wide superblocks on former farmland.

Now, tremendous growth is straining transportation. Traffic stacks up during afternoon commutes, and Interstate 405 slows to a crawl.

As Amazon, Microsoft, Google, and others grow their Eastside workforces, City staff anticipate a net gain of roughly 18,000 downtown jobs by 2025, joining the more than 52,000 people who currently work in the city core.

Roughly translated, this would boost employment higher than the current numbers in Seattle’s busy South Lake Union.

But local leaders acknowledge remaking a car-dominated landscape doesn’t happen overnight. The City aims to cut the share of downtown commuters who drive alone to work to about one-third by 2035, a reversal of today’s pattern where more than two-thirds drive alone.

To do this, they’re planning for trains, buses, bicycles, walking, vanpools — and maybe even autonomous vehicles — to keep people moving.

In past years, the Bellevue City Council voted to create a safer walking network by converting Sixth Street to a 60-foot-wide, tree-lined walking corridor and shortening a street to complete its circular Downtown Park.

Instead of narrowing six- and seven-lane streets with so-called road diets, Bellevue’s approach to reducing car-pedestrian conflicts relies on skybridges around Bellevue Square, and altering some traffic signals to give walkers a head start at intersections. Smaller streets include walker-activated amber flashers.

Large employers and city officials are also counting on the $3.7 billion Sound Transit East Link light-rail line — projected to serve 50,000 daily passengers when it opens in 2023 — to handle many of the new commutes.

New bike lanes on 108th Avenue Northeast serve a trickle of riders for now. More bike lanes are planned on Main Street. Just east of I-405, the 42 miles of abandoned BNSF railroad tracks are being redeveloped for bicycle riders and pedestrians as Eastrail, spanning from Snohomish to Renton.

Bellevue’s growth spurt won’t necessarily translate into massive public-transit ridership, however, at least in the short term. Private transit is adapting faster.

With aid from a $100 million federal loan, the city has created or widened 11 streets between Wilburton and the Spring District east of I-405 where REI’s headquarters, Facebook and other companies are locating.

That follows citywide spending of $5.5 million to equip 197 intersections with adaptive signals that continually re-time to move clusters of approaching vehicles.

And the permit paperwork for the planned 43-story Amazon tower shows 1,175 underground parking stalls (nearly double the 632 spaces in the current parking garage that this new tower will replace).

On I-405, the Washington State Department of Transportation (WSDOT) will build an express toll lane each direction between Renton and Bellevue, to open in 2024, along with exit-only lanes to clear departing drivers off the mainline.

The existing carpool lanes will be converted to a second toll lane each way. Sound Transit will follow with new bus-rapid transit and park-and-ride lots.

Finally, in perhaps its most lofty vision yet, The Grand Connection is a sprawling pedestrian and cyclist pathway that would stretch between Meydenbauer Bay Park on the west, through Main Street and downtown, and across the freeway to Eastrail. With a bridge or park lid above I-405, just south of the nearly completed Sound Transit rail bridge, design concepts show amphitheater steps, sculptures and a row of ginkgo trees.

Unlike the longer Burke-Gilman Trail in Seattle, the Grand Connection would encourage people to linger at cafes and parks. As a traffic-free shortcut, it would reduce the need to drive and park at downtown spots.

There’s no funding yet. Costs vary based on whether Bellevue builds a full park like Mercer Island has over I-90, or a thin bridge, for around $130 million.

 


A version of this article was originally posted on U.S. News by Michelle Baruchman

And on GettheWReport.com Blog


Posted on January 27, 2020 at 11:05 pm
Heidi Renee | Posted in Housing Market, Local Real Estate News | Tagged , , , , , , , ,

The Gardner Report – Q4 2019 Western Washington

The following analysis of the Western Washington real estate market is provided by Windermere Real Estate Chief Economist, Matthew Gardner. We hope that this information may assist you with making better-informed real estate decisions. For further information about the housing market in your area, please don’t hesitate to contact your Windermere agent.



ECONOMIC OVERVIEW

Employment in Washington State continues to soften; it is currently at an annual growth rate of 1.7%. I believe that is a temporary slowdown and we will see the pace of employment growth improve as we move further into the new year. It’s clear that businesses are continuing to feel the effects of the trade war with China and this is impacting hiring practices. This is, of course, in addition to the issues that Boeing currently faces regarding the 737 MAX.

In the fourth quarter of 2019 the state unemployment rate was 4.4%, marginally lower than the 4.5% level of a year ago. My most recent economic forecast suggests that statewide job growth in 2020 will rise 2.2%, with a total of 76,300 new jobs created.

HOME SALES

  • There were 18,322 home sales registered during the final quarter of 2019, representing an impressive increase of 4.7% from the same period in 2018.
  • Readers may remember that listing activity spiked in the summer of 2018 but could not be sustained, with the average number of listings continuing to fall. Year-over-year, the number of homes for sale in Western Washington dropped 31.7%.
  • Compared to the fourth quarter of 2018, sales rose in nine counties and dropped in six. The greatest growth was in Whatcom County. San Juan County had significant declines, but this is a very small market which makes it prone to extreme swings.
  • Pending home sales — a barometer for future closings — dropped 31% between the third and fourth quarters of 2019, suggesting that we may well see a dip in the number of closed sales in the first quarter of 2020.

HOME PRICES

  • Home price growth in Western Washington spiked during fourth quarter, with average prices 8.3% higher than a year ago. The average sale price in Western Washington was $526,564, 0.7% higher than in the third quarter of 2019.
  • It’s worth noting that above-average price growth is happening in markets some distance from the primary job centers. I strongly feel this is due to affordability issues, which are forcing buyers farther out.
  • Compared to the same period a year ago, price growth was strongest in San Juan County, where home prices were up 41.7%. Six additional counties also saw double-digit price increases.
  • Home prices were higher in every county contained in this report. I expect this trend to continue in 2020, but we may see a softening in the pace of growth in some of the more expensive urban areas.

DAYS ON MARKET

  • The average number of days it took to sell a home dropped four days compared to the third quarter of 2019.
  • For the second quarter in a row, Thurston County was the tightest market in Western Washington, with homes taking an average of 29 days to sell. In nine counties, the length of time it took to sell a home dropped compared to the same period a year ago. Market time rose in four counties and two were unchanged.
  • Across the entire region, it took an average of 47 days to sell a home in the fourth quarter. This was up nine days over the third quarter of this year.
  • Market time remains below the long-term average across the region, a trend that will likely continue until we see more inventory come to market — possibly as we move through the spring.

CONCLUSIONS

This speedometer reflects the state of the region’s real estate market using housing inventory, price gains, home sales, interest rates, and larger economic factors.

The housing market ended the year on a high note, with transactions and prices picking up steam. I believe the uncertainty of 2018 (when we saw significant inventory enter the market) has passed and home buyers are back in the market. Unfortunately, buyers’ desire for more inventory is not being met and I do not see any significant increase in listing activity on the horizon. As such, I have moved the needle more in favor of home sellers.

As Chief Economist for Windermere Real Estate, Matthew Gardner is responsible for analyzing and interpreting economic data and its impact on the real estate market on both a local and national level. Matthew has over 30 years of professional experience both in the U.S. and U.K.

In addition to his day-to-day responsibilities, Matthew sits on the Washington State Governors Council of Economic Advisors; chairs the Board of Trustees at the Washington Center for Real Estate Research at the University of Washington; and is an Advisory Board Member at the Runstad Center for Real Estate Studies at the University of Washington where he also lectures in real estate economics.

This post originally appeared on the Windermere.com Blog.


Posted on January 23, 2020 at 9:29 pm
Heidi Renee | Posted in Gardner Report, Housing Market |

Local Market Update – January 2020

2019 ended with too many buyers chasing too few homes. December marked the sixth straight month of declining supply. The severe shortage of homes, historically low interest rates, and strong job growth are predicted to keep the local housing market strong in 2020. In a region starved for inventory, sellers can expect significant interest in new listings.

EASTSIDE

Homes sold briskly on the Eastside in December in all categories, including the luxury market. The number of listings were down nearly 50% from a year ago and the area had under a month of available inventory. That lack of inventory helped bump the median price of a single-family home up 4% from a year ago to $949,000, which is a $49,000 increase from November.  New large scale developments and a strong economic forecast indicate that the housing market will remain healthy.

VIEW FULL EASTSIDE REPORT

KING COUNTY

King County continues to be a seller’s market. Inventory in December was down nearly 40% compared to a year ago and ended the month with below one month supply. The median price of a single-family home rose 6% over the prior year to $675,000, up slightly from November. More affordable areas saw much higher increases. Southeast King County – which includes Auburn, Kent and Renton – saw home prices jump 16% over the previous year.

VIEW FULL KING COUNTY REPORT

SEATTLE

Numbers tell the story in Seattle. Inventory was down 25%, while the number of closed sales increased 19%. Strong demand here has kept the housing market solid, with prices fluctuating slightly month-to-month for much of 2019. The median price of a single-family home sold in December increased 2% from a year ago to $727,000. That was slightly down from $735,000 in November.

VIEW FULL SEATTLE REPORT

SNOHOMISH COUNTY

While the median home price in Snohomish County is less than that in King County, the gap continues to close. Buyers willing to trade a longer commute for a lower mortgage have kept demand and prices strong. Inventory here was off 36% in December as compared to a year ago. The median price of a single-family home rose 9% over a year ago to $510,000, an increase of $15,000 from November.

VIEW FULL SNOHOMISH COUNTY REPORT


This post originally appeared on GetTheWReport.com


Posted on January 15, 2020 at 7:30 am
Heidi Renee | Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

SEATTLE A NATIONAL LEADER IN HIGH-RISE APARTMENT DEVELOPMENT

 

Seattle is growing up, literally, when it comes to its housing market, ranking fourth among the 30 largest cities in the country in an assessment of cities with most high-rise apartment complexes built over the past decade, a recent RentCafe study shows.

High-rise apartment buildings represented 9% of all new multifamily development in the city over the past decade, up from 5% in the 1990s, the study found.

“Of the 26 residential high-rises delivered in the last decade, six were skyscrapers (of 40-plus floors),” according to the report by the apartment-search platform RentCafe. “No wonder the average number of floors for all types of apartment buildings in Seattle went from five in the ’90s to eight in the current decade.”

Ranking ahead of Seattle on the high-rise apartment front is New York, with 112 projects developed between 2010 and 2018, followed by Chicago, at 71; and Philadelphia, at 27. Trailing Seattle is Boston, with 24 high-rise apartment developments over the period, followed by Dallas, at 23; and Los Angeles and Houston, with 20 each.

For the purposes of the study, a high-rise is defined as a building with 13 or more floors while a skyscraper is defined as a property with more than 40 floors.

“Seattle witnessed a veritable residential high-rise boom in the last decade,” the RentCafe report says. “The number of completed apartment high-rises [in the city] jumped from three in the ’90s to a significant 26 in the ’10s.”

The trend toward high-rise apartment development in Seattle is likely to continue in the coming decade, as Seattle Business reported earlier this year.

Seattle has seen the number of jobs and people living and working in downtown grow by nearly 40 percent over the past decade, giving rise to a report from the Downtown Seattle Association that contends unless Seattle adjusts its zoning guidelines, the downtown area will have “only a few viable sites for the next development cycle.”

One solution is to expand vertically, rather than horizontally near mass transit stations, allowing mid- and high-rise development projects that create densely populated vertical neighborhoods — mini-downtowns — that combine housing, restaurants, shops and offices.

This past March, the Seattle City Council unanimously approved a controversial plan to rezone for more intensive use, or “upzone,” portions of 27 neighborhoods and several commercial corridors, which encourages denser development and more high-rise buildings.

 


This was originally posted on Seattle Business Magazine by Bill Conroy

Found on GettheWReport.com Blog


Posted on January 9, 2020 at 10:28 pm
Heidi Renee | Posted in Housing Market, Local Real Estate News | Tagged , , , ,

Local Market Update – December 2019

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Favorable interest rates and soaring rents boosted activity in the housing market in November. More buyers competing for less inventory kept home prices strong. With the supply of homes far short of demand, sellers can expect well-priced properties to sell quickly this winter.

EASTSIDE

With just over a month of available inventory, demand on Eastside remains very strong. Sales are brisk, with 45% of single-family homes selling in 15 days or less and 20% of homes selling for over list price. The median single-family home price in November rose 2% from a year ago to $900,000 and was unchanged from October.

VIEW FULL EASTSIDE REPORT

KING COUNTY

With more buyers vying for fewer homes, King County remains a solid seller’s market. While inventory traditionally shrinks in the winter, this November saw the number of new listings at historic lows. Demand was strong, with the number of closed sales up 12% over the same time last year. The median home price ticked up 3% over the prior year to $661,000 and was unchanged from October. The strong market sent prices higher in the more affordable price ranges, with some areas in South King County seeing double-digit increases.

VIEW FULL KING COUNTY REPORT

SEATTLE

Activity in Seattle was very strong in November. The number of closed sales was up 29% over the same time last year. With just over one month of homes available for sale, the city is starved for inventory. Seattle homes prices have ebbed and flowed slightly from month to month for much of this year. The median price of a single-family home sold in November was off 3% from a year ago to $735,000.

VIEW FULL SEATTLE REPORT

SNOHOMISH COUNTY

With an increasing number of buyers driving to affordability, the Snohomish County housing market remains robust. Inventory is very tight and continues to fall. The county finished November with just over one month of supply. The median price of a single-family home rose 5% over a year ago to $495,000. That figure is unchanged from October.

VIEW FULL SNOHOMISH COUNTY REPORT


This post originally appeared on GetTheWReport.com


Posted on December 18, 2019 at 8:28 am
Heidi Renee | Posted in Buying a Home, Local Market Updates, Selling your Home | Tagged , , , , , , ,

Windermere’s Winter Drive Collects Nearly 6,000 Items for Mary’s Place

 

It’s another fall season and the fourth year of Windermere’s #TackleHomelessness campaign with the Seattle Seahawks. As a part of this campaign, Windermere hosts an annual “We’ve Got You Covered” winter drive. This year, 33 Windermere offices in in the greater Seattle area* participated in the drive, collecting new hats, scarves, gloves/mittens, socks, and other warm winter items for Mary’s Place.

 

Mary’s Place is a non-profit that provides safe, inclusive shelter and services to support women, children and families on their journey out of homelessness. Since 1999, Mary’s Place has helped hundreds of women and families move out of homelessness into more stable situations. But shelter capacity is limited and there are still hundreds of families sleeping outside in cars and tents each night, so Windermere collected items to help them stay warm this winter.

 

During the four-week drive, our offices collected donations from agents, staff, and the community, which included over 630 hats, 680 pairs of gloves, over 200 scarves, over 2,000 pairs of socks, and an assortment of coats, jackets, sweaters, blankets, toiletries and other items, bringing our grand total to nearly 6,000 items collected for Mary’s Place.

 

One office made the drive extra special by partnering with a local knitting group. The Windermere Mercer Island office partnered once again with the Mercer Island Tuesday Knitters, to make cozy hats and scarves. This year the knitting group contributed 67 hand-knitted hats and scarves to the winter drive.

 

The staff at the Mary’s Place donation center in South Seattle were grateful to receive the bins full of donated items that were delivered by Gentle Giant Moving Company. “We are so incredibly grateful to our Windermere family for all that they do for our families!” said Marty Hartman, Mary’s Place Executive Director. “These gifts of warm winter gear will keep our kids and families warm and loved this winter!”

 

Windermere is also grateful to partner with Gentle Giant Moving Company on our winter drive. For the past four years, they have generously given their time, muscle, and trucks to pick up and deliver all of the donations.

 

And this drive would not be possible each year without the support of the Seattle Seahawks, our offices, and all those who donated. From all of us at Windermere, thank you for making our fourth annual winter drive a success and for supporting families experiencing homelessness in the greater Seattle area!

 

*Participating Windermere offices:

BellevueBellevue CommonsBellevue WestFederal WayFederal Way-West CampusKentKirklandKirkland Yarrow BayLynnwoodMercer IslandMill CreekProperty Management – BellevueProperty Management – EdmondsProperty Management-EverettProperty Management – Seattle NorthProperty Management – SouthRedmondSeattle-EastlakeSeattle-Green LakeSeattle-GreenwoodSeattle-LakeviewSeattle-Madison ParkSeattle-Mount BakerSeattle-NorthgateSeattle-NorthwestSeattle-Pike/PineSeattle-Queen AnneSeattle-Sand PointSeattle-Wall StreetSeattle-West SeattleServices CompanyShorelineSnohomish

 


This post originally appeared on the Windermere.com Blog


Posted on December 4, 2019 at 11:47 pm
Heidi Renee | Posted in Giving Back, Local Community | Tagged , , , , , , , , ,

A Star is Reborn: Iconic Seattle Macy’s Star to Return in Time for the Holidays


It looks like the iconic downtown Seattle holiday star will be back this year for at least one more time. Sources say a local sign company has been hired to repair and restore the 62-year-old holiday decoration that has graced the old Bon Marche (or, more recently, Macy’s) department store at the corner of 4th Avenue and Pine Street since the 1950s. Workers have been visible on the roof of the building since earlier this week.

When Macy’s announced in September that the store would close in early 2020, it was also revealed that the old star was in disrepair and would not be installed this year. A Macy’s spokesperson said that new owners of the building would display a “reimagined” star next year.

Multiple KIRO Radio listeners had contacted the station when news first broke hoping to learn more about the condition of the star and the feasibility of it being repaired in time for this year’s holiday season. In the past several weeks, Wendy James, daughter of late star designer Bob James, launched a Facebook page and began a campaign to bring the star back.

No details have been confirmed, but it looks like the old star — repaired and refurbished — will be part of the traditional tree-lighting and holiday parade scheduled to take place at Westlake Park on Friday, Nov. 29, the day after Thanksgiving.

 


This was originally posted on mynorthwest.com by Feliks Banel, and on the GettheWReport.com


Posted on November 25, 2019 at 6:45 am
Heidi Renee | Posted in Local Community | Tagged , , , , , , , ,

A Gold Thanksgiving

Image Source: Shutterstock


We’re in the thick of autumn now, with Thanksgiving just days away. That means it’s time to start considering how to best showcase your home before the guests arrive.

One of the cheeriest bits of fall is the shifting colors that bring a canopy of rustic hues to a walk through the neighborhood. You can bring that cozy feeling inside yourself with some golden-dipped creativity.

 

Gilded Pears – Use real or fake pears, whichever you prefer, spray paint gold, and allow them to dry completely. You can add little flags to the top if you’re really feeling crafty.

 

Magnolia Wreath – Collect some Magnolia branches and use a wreath frame as a base. Spray paint the green side of each leaf with gold and then assemble using wire. It’s not as complicated as it looks!

 

Dipped Pinecones  – First, you’ll want to make sure your cones are clean and dry. Apply gold leaf adhesive using a foam brush; deciding how much you add will determine how much of the cone is covered in gold. After they dry, consider gold leafing the cone’s scales. Wrap it around the cone and use a clean foam brush to rub it into the adhesive. Then give it a light spray with sealant and allow them to dry.

 

Gold Acorns – Hand pick your acorns, clean, and oven-dry them to make sure they are pest free. Paint them gold and then add a layer of clear shellac for a shiny look. Lastly, you’ll want to use a hot glue gun to attach the caps since they naturally fall off after the acorns dry. You can use these as filler in a glass vase or simply scatter them on a tabletop.

 

Shimmering Maple Garland – All you’ll need is a bag of artificial leaves, bought at any craft store, some Elmer’s glue, glitter, and string. Use a paintbrush to apply glue to each leaf and sprinkle lots of glitter over them. Let the glue set, then shake off the excess glitter, punch a hole at the top and attach a ribbon. Tie them all to a large strand and voilà, a perfect garland for the holidays.

 

Petite Pumpkins – If you are still head over heels for pumpkins, then using small ones for place cards will add some spice to your table. Tape each pumpkin halfway with painters tape, choose a design with horizontal, diagonal, or however you want! Next paint the bottom portion with gold craft paint (may require multiple layers) and with the last layer still wet, generously sprinkle gold glitter over the painted half. After your pumpkin is dry and you’ve shaken off the excess glitter, wrap beading foil tightly around the stem. Leave a little extra at the end for you to bend for your place card.

 

Find these and more decor ideas on Windermere’s Pinterest Board, “A Gold Thanksgiving.”


This post originally appeared on the Windermere.com Blog


Posted on November 21, 2019 at 9:27 pm
Heidi Renee | Posted in For Your Home | Tagged , , , , ,

Local Market Update – November 2019

A steady influx of buyers continued to strain already tight inventory throughout the area in October. Home sales were up, as were prices in much of the region. With our thriving economy and highly desirable quality of life drawing ever more people here, the supply of homes isn’t close to meeting demand. Homeowners thinking about putting their property on the market can expect strong buyer interest.

EASTSIDE

As the Eastside continues to rack up “best places” awards, it’s no surprise that the area is booming. Development is on the rise, fueled primarily by the tech sector. The appeal of the Eastside has kept home prices here the highest of any segment of King County. The median single-family home price in October was stable as compared to the same time last year, rising 1% to $900,000.

VIEW FULL EASTSIDE REPORT

KING COUNTY

King County’s 1.74 months of available inventory is far below the national average of four months. Despite the slim selection, demand in October was strong. The number of closed sales was up 5% and the number of pending sales (offers accepted but not yet closed) was up 11%. The median price of a single-family home was down 2% over a year ago to $660,000. However, some areas around the more reasonably-priced south end of the county saw double-digit price increases.

VIEW FULL KING COUNTY REPORT

SEATTLE

Seattle home prices took their largest year-over-year jump in 12 months. The median price of a single-family home sold in October was up 3% from a year ago to $775,000, a $25,000 increase from September of this year.  Seattle was recently named the third fastest-growing city in America.  Real estate investment is surging. A growing population and booming economy continue to keep demand for housing –and home prices—strong.

VIEW FULL SEATTLE REPORT

SNOHOMISH COUNTY

Both the number of home sales and home prices were on the rise in Snohomish County in October. Overall homes sales increased 7%, and the median price of a single-family home rose 5% over a year ago to $495,000.  Supply remains very low, with just six weeks of available inventory.

VIEW FULL SNOHOMISH COUNTY REPORT


This post originally appeared on GetTheWReport.com


Posted on November 18, 2019 at 9:30 pm
Heidi Renee | Posted in Housing Market, Local Market Updates | Tagged , , , , , , ,